In many places around the world, we've seen mortality rates
continue to decline. However, one of the exceptions is among middle-aged white Americans. These findings, announced today by two Princeton professors, Nobel
Prize winner Angus Deaton and Dr. Anne Case, are shocking and may account for
the support of Donald Trump.
These Americans whose education stopped at high school are
dying by suicide; substance abuse; alcoholic liver disease; and overdoses of
heroin and prescription opioids. The mortality rates for whites, age 45 to 54
years old, with no more than a high school education, has increased by 134
deaths per 100,000 between 1999 and 2014. At the same time mortality rates for
African Americans and Latinos have been decreasing.
The increase in mortality among this subgroup is enough to raise
the mortality rate of all whites in this age cohort.
It used to be you could get a job on an auto assembly line
and be middle-class in America. Those hard-working union members in many
industries did well enough to send their kids to college, and retire
comfortably. That's no longer the case and the people who've been left behind
are extremely angry, ready to blame people of color or national origin for
their problems.
As the son of a man who never finished high school I find it
hard to judge them. Their country changed around them and they were left with
little hope. However, finding easy targets like immigrants or Muslims will not
improve their situation. All I can say is "there, but for the grace of God,
go l."
As I reflect on my latest blog, I'm struck by how much my
home county fits in with the world in which white middle-aged Americans are
dying in greater numbers every year. Both my brothers live within 15 miles of
my great-grandfather's grave. They live in Oswego County, which has seen the
brewery boarded up; the Nestlé plant close; and where now one of the two nuclear plants is
shutting down. It's hard to find good work in this county, which lies below the
Canadian border and faces Lake Ontario.
The image I believe that sums up the county is of a basement
where they never completed the house that was supposed to sit on top of it. So
they still live in the basement, but the last time I was there I noticed they
added a satellite dish.